With the qualification process for Euro 2012 almost at an end, I thought I’d provide a quick update on the teams that have already qualified, those that have made it into the play-offs and a quick overview of the draw process and possible predictions and permutations.
That’s quite a few words starting with the letter ‘p’ in there…
There are a dozen teams already in the finals; these are the two host countries Poland and the Ukraine and, in qualifying group order: Germany, Russia, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Greece, England, Denmark, holders Spain and the best second-place finishers, Sweden. These twelve teams will be joined by the four winners of the two-legged play-off matches to be played in the second week of November:
Turkey – Croatia
Portugal – Bosnia and Herzegovina
Republic of Ireland – Estonia
Czech Republic – Montenegro
Once the play-off matches have been completed and the tournament finalists have been finalised, all of the sixteen teams will be placed into four pots of four teams for the main draw – with seedings based on each team’s UEFA coefficient score. With the two host countries Poland and Ukraine being automatically seeded in the top two positions, Germany – ranked third behind holders Spain and World Cup runners-up the Netherlands – will be seeded fifth overall and will as a result be placed in the second pot for the draw alognside Italy, England and Russia.
Pot predictions
Examining the UEFA rankings as at 12.11.2011 and the teams that have already qualified, we can already establish which teams are going to be in the first two pots for the draw, assuming the rankings do not change:
Pot 1:
Ukraine (host nation, seeded 1)
Poland (host nation, seeded 2)
Spain (ranked 1, seeded 3)
Netherlands (ranked 2, seeded 4)
Pot 2:
Germany (ranked 3, seeded 5)
Italy (ranked 4, seeded 6)
England (ranked 5, seeded 7)
Russia (ranked 6, seeded 8)
The teams in pots 3 and 4 cannot be determined yet, as both of these pots will be shaped by the teams that win the four play-off matches. Thankfully the permutations are not that wide-ranging as only two matches will have an impact on the placement of teams in pots 3 and 4 – Portugal v Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia v Turkey – while the teams ranked thirteenth and below cannot be placed in pot 3 or above as there are twelve higher ranked/seeded teams that have already secured their place at the finals. This means that the winners of the Czech Republic v Montenegro and Republic of Ireland v Estonia matches will be placed in pot 4 irrespective of any other result(s).
Scenario 1. If Croatia beat Turkey and Portugal beat Bosnia-Herzegovina:
Pot 3:
Croatia (ranked 7, seeded 9)
Greece (ranked 8, seeded 10)
Sweden (ranked 9, seeded 11)
Denmark (ranked 10, seeded 12)
Pot 4:
Portugal (ranked 11, seeded 13)
France (ranked 12, seeded 14)
Republic of Ireland (ranked 13, seeded 15) or Estonia (ranked 37, seeded 16)
Czech Republic (ranked 15, seeded 15 or 16) or Montenegro (ranked 35, seeded 15 or 16)
– If the Republic of Ireland and the Czech Republic both qualify in this scenario alongside Croatia and Portugal, the Irish will be seeded 15th and the Czechs 16th. This is the most likely scenario, with all of the higher-ranked sides in the four play-off matches – Croatia, Portugal, the Republic of Ireland and the Czech Republic – progressing to the finals.
– If the Republic of Ireland qualify but the Czechs do not, the Irish will be seeded 15th and Montenegro (having betaen the Czechs) will be 16th.
– If the Czechs qualify but the Irish do not, they will be seeded 15th and Estonia (having beaten the Irish) will be seeded 16th.
– If both Estonia and Montenegro win their play-off matches, the Montenegrins will be seeded 15th and the Estonians 16th respectively.
This is the most likely scenario, with all of the higher-ranked sides in the four play-off matches – Croatia, Portugal, the Republic of Ireland and the Czech Republic – progressing to the finals.
Scenario 2. If Croatia beat Turkey and Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Portugal:
Pot 3:
Croatia (ranked 7, seeded 9)
Greece (ranked 8, seeded 10)
Sweden (ranked 9, seeded 11)
Denmark (ranked 10, seeded 12)
Pot 4:
France (ranked 12, seeded 13)
Republic of Ireland (ranked 13, seeded 14 or 15) or Estonia (ranked 37, seeded 16)
Czech Republic (ranked 15, seeded 14 or 15) or Montenegro (ranked 35, seeded 15 or 16)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (ranked 19, seeded 14, 15 or 16)
– If the Republic of Ireland and the Czech Republic both qualify in this scenario alongside Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Irish will be seeded 14th, the Czechs 15th and the Bosnians 16th.
– If the Republic of Ireland qualify but the Czech Republic do not, they will be seeded 14th with Bosnia seeded 15th and Montenegro 16th.
– If the Czechs qualify but the Irish do not, they will be seeded 14th with the Bosnians 15th and 16th.
– If both Estonia and Montenegro win their play-off matches, the Bosnians will be seeded 14th while the Montenegrins will be seeded 15th and the Estonians 16th.
Scenario 3. If Turkey beat Croatia and Portugal beat Bosnia-Herzegovina:
Pot 3:
Greece (ranked 8, seeded 9)
Sweden (ranked 9, seeded 10)
Denmark (ranked 10, seeded 11)
Portugal (ranked 11, seeded 12)
Pot 4:
France (ranked 12, seeded 13)
Republic of Ireland (ranked 13, seeded 14) or Estonia (ranked 37, seeded 16)
Czech Republic (ranked 15, seeded 14 or 15) or Montenegro (ranked 35, seeded 15 or 16)
Turkey (ranked 18, seeded 15 or 16)
– If the Republic of Ireland and the Czech Republic both qualify in this scenario alongside Turkey and Portugal, the Irish will be seeded 14th, the Czechs 15th and the Turks 16th.
– If the Republic of Ireland win their play-off but the Czechs do not, the Irish will be seeded 14th with Turkey 15th and Montenegro 16th.
– If the Czechs qualify but the Irish do not, they will be seeded 14th with Turkey 15th and Estonia 16th.
– If both Estonia and Montenegro win their play-offs, the Turks will be seeded 14th while Montenegrins will be 15th and the Estonians 16th.
Scenario 4. If Turkey beat Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Portugal:
Pot 3:
Greece (ranked 8, seeded 9)
Sweden (ranked 9, seeded 10)
Denmark (ranked 10, seeded 11)
France (ranked 12, seeded 12)
Pot 4:
Republic of Ireland (ranked 13, seeded 13) or Estonia (ranked 37, seeded 16)
Czech Republic (ranked 15, seeded 13 or 14) or Montenegro (ranked 35, seeded 15 or 16)
Turkey (ranked 18, seeded 13, 14 or 15)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (ranked 19, seeded 14, 15 or 16)
– If the Republic of Ireland and the Czech Republic qualify in this scenario alongside Turkey and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Irish will be seeded 13th and the Czechs 14th with the Turks 15th and Bosnians 16th.
– If the Republic of Ireland qualify by the Czechs do not, the Irish will be seeded 13th with the Turks 14th, the Bosnians 15th and Montenegro 16th.
– If the Czechs qualify but the Irish do not, they will be seeded 13th while Turkey will be 14th, Bosnia 15th and Estonia 16th.
– If both Estonia and Montenegro win their play-off matches, Turkey will be seeded 13th with the Bosnians 14th, the Montenegrins 15th and the Estonians 16th. This is the least likely scenario, with all of the lower-ranked sides in the four play-off matches – Turkey, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Estonia – progressing to the finals.
Now please tell me you that are dreadfully confused and that your head is about to explode.
Given all these possible pot combinations, there are a number of worst-case scenarios for Germany come draw time. Being placed in pot two, the Mannschaft could possibly draw one of Spain or the Netherlands from Pot 1, while Pot 3 could produce a tough opponent like France or Portugal. In some scenarios a strong team like France could even end up in Pot 4, which could go towards creating a genuinely terrifying “group of death”; for instance it is possible that Germany could end up in a group alongside either the Spaniards or the Dutch, Portugal and France. Ouch!
Of course, Jogi Löw’s side could just as easily end up in a soft group alongside one of the host countries, Greece and one of the smaller countries – but after that infamous goalless draw against unfancied Latvia in 2004, no team can be underestimated.
You can see the UEFA coefficent rankings as at 12.10.2011 here – the figures have been calculated using the results from every competitive fixture from the start of the Euro 2008 qualification process through to the final group games played this month.